Impact of the War on Terror on Certain Aspects of US Policy in the Middle East
27 December 2001
A Medium-Term Assessment
Prepared for The National Intelligence Council
by Paul Jabber
The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
The Gathering Crisis in Iran
"The evolving situation within Iran merits priority attention by the USG. Perhaps no single event in the medium-term
could deal a more severe blow to the forces of Islamist fundamentalism in the Middle East and beyond than the fall of
the conservative Mullahs from power in Tehran. Clerical rule has failed resoundingly in promoting economic development,
and continues to fall further behind the curve of Iranian population growth. Young Iranians, now accounting for two-thirds
of the total population, increasingly chafe under a system that offers a mediocre education and meager chances for economic
advancement, while imposing severe restrictions on personal behavior and freedom of expression. Well into his second term,
the reformist Prime Minister Khatami and his non-confrontational strategy are losing support as conservative repression
intensifies. It is only a matter of time before Khatami is forced into a more aggressive stance. The only development that
could abort the eventual showdown between the Khatami camp and the conservative forces led by Ayatollah Khamene'i is a
drastic upturn in the country's economic fortunes, an unlikely eventuality which the USG should do nothing to encourage.
"As the looming crisis in Iran deepens, the most worrisome aspect from Washington's perspective may be the fall-out effect on
our interests of attempts by the conservative camp to goad the USG into actions that might bring discredit upon the reformist
camp or cause it to fissure. The litmus issue of relations with the US could turn out to be a critical vector in the showdown.
Timing may play an important role, as events within Iran interact with the regional reverberations of our anti-terror activities.
"Two tentative, and partly contradictory, projections suggest themselves: (a) the more intense and widespread our counter-terror
campaign within the Middle East, the more ammunition will the conservatives have to stoke anti-US sentiment within Iran and
siphon support away from the reformist camp; (b) if Iraq becomes the target of a concerted US effort to end Saddam Hussein's rule,
and on the assumption that such an effort will necessarily require coalition-building among anti-Ba'th forces, including strong
representation by the Shi'as of southern Iraq, Tehran's desire to play a role in influencing events in post-Saddam Iraq will
enhance chances for improvement in US-Iran relations and thereby strengthen the Khatami reformist faction. It may be
counterintuitive but worthy of some consideration that US interests in Iran may be set back by an activist campaign against
terrorism on a region-wide basis, but may be significantly assisted by a campaign to take down the Hussein regime in Baghdad."
Future of Iraq Project
Starting in October 2001, about a year and a half before the US and its allies
invaded Iraq, the State Department spearheaded an effort called the Future of Iraq
Project. Dozens of Iraqi exiles and international experts were brought together to
figure out how to create a new Iraq should Saddam Hussein somehow be taken out of power.
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